126
Changes requested by Democrats that were incorporated into the latest draft of the bill 3
60
Votes required in the Senate to pass the procedural motion and advance the legislation 4
30% to 40%
Estimated probability of the bill's passage this year according to Beacon Policy Advisors 3
Over $1.4 billion
Income reported by Donald Trump from crypto ventures last year 4

The Legislative Push and Ethics Compromise

The United States Senate is scheduled to hold a crucial procedural vote on the Clarity Act on September 15, 2026 134. To advance the bill, supporters must secure a 60-vote supermajority, requiring at least seven to ten Democratic senators to join the Republican minority 4. The latest version of the bill, released on Sunday night, contains 126 changes requested by Democrats in an effort to build bipartisan support 34. A central element of the compromise is a revised ethics framework endorsed by Donald Trump, which targets conflicts of interest related to federal officials' digital asset holdings 134.

Under the new terms, state attorneys general receive the authority to enforce conflict-of-interest rules, a provision the White House previously resisted 14. The rules require covered officials, including newly elected individuals and their spouses, to divest their crypto holdings or place them in a qualified blind trust 4. Unlike an earlier proposal that would have expired in January 2029, these restrictions have no sunset date 4. This compromise follows criticism of Trump's personal earnings, which included over $1.4 billion from crypto ventures and approximately $635 million from a meme coin last year 4. Senator Cynthia Lummis praised the agreement, calling it the toughest ethics reform in American history 1.

Stablecoin Yields and Banking Industry Resistance

Despite the ethics compromise, the banking sector continues to oppose the legislation 12. On September 14, 2026, eight banking trade groups, including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, sent a letter to Senate leadership demanding stricter limits on stablecoin rewards 2. The groups argue that the current draft contains loopholes that permit interest-like payments, which could draw deposits away from traditional lenders 2.

The revised bill retains the Tillis-Alsobrooks yield agreement from May 2026 but introduces a "circuit breaker" mechanism 24. This mechanism allows the Treasury Secretary to restrict stablecoin rewards if they cause significant deposit flight from community banks 34. However, the banking groups rejected this measure, stating that a post-flight intervention does not provide an adequate safeguard 2. The ongoing dispute has split lawmakers, with Republican Senators Jerry Moran and Josh Hawley indicating they would oppose the bill unless bank-backed changes are integrated 4.

Regulatory Clarifications and Developer Protections

The Clarity Act seeks to establish a federal regulatory framework by dividing oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission 13. The latest draft introduces significant changes to developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act 4. Notably, the text removes explicit protections against criminal prosecution under Section 1960, a move described as a disappointment by industry participants 4.

This omission leaves intact the legal theory used to prosecute Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm last year 4. To offset this, the bill strengthens civil protections, explicitly stating that developers, miners, and validators who do not control customer funds are not money transmitters under the Bank Secrecy Act 4. Additionally, the updated "Ag title" clarifies that state consumer protection laws remain applicable and that prediction markets are not exempted from derivatives regulations 4.

Market Expectations and Path to Passage

Market analysts report that the digital asset market has not priced in the potential advancement of the bill 3. Following the release of the revised text, several policy firms adjusted their expectations for the legislation 34. Beacon Policy Advisors raised their probability of passage to a range of 30% to 40%, up from an earlier estimate of under 10% 3. Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn increased his estimated probability of passage in 2026 from 10% to 25% 4.

However, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg maintained a more conservative 25% probability of enactment this year 3. If the legislation fails to pass, CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig has directed staff to explore implementing crypto rules using the agency's existing regulatory powers 3. Even if the Senate approves the bill, the tight legislative calendar remains a significant obstacle, potentially requiring the House of Representatives to vote on the Senate's version during a lame-duck session 4.

What is not yet established

  • Whether the newly proposed ethics concessions will be sufficient to secure the necessary Democratic votes to pass the procedural motion
  • The exact timeline for the House of Representatives to consider the Senate's version of the bill if it passes the Senate
  • Whether the Treasury Secretary would actually utilize the proposed circuit breaker mechanism in the event of deposit outflows
  • The specific reasons that prompted Donald Trump to accept stricter ethics rules than those previously proposed

Frequently asked questions

Why are banking groups opposing the current draft of the Clarity Act?

Banking groups argue that the bill's exceptions for stablecoin rewards could allow interest-like payments, drawing deposits away from traditional banks and reducing funds available for lending 2.

What are the key ethics provisions agreed to by Donald Trump?

The compromise requires covered officials and their spouses to divest their digital asset holdings or place them in a blind trust, and grants state attorneys general the authority to enforce these conflict-of-interest rules 14.

What happens if the Senate fails to pass the Clarity Act?

If the legislation fails, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to explore implementing crypto rules using its existing regulatory powers 3.

Sources

  1. Bitcoin Magazine — Lummis Credits Trump for Ethics Deal as Clarity Act Faces Tuesday Vote (2026-09-14) https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/lummis-credits-trump-on-clarity-act
  2. Decrypt — Banks Want More: Trade Groups Demand Stricter Stablecoin Limits in Clarity Act (2026-09-14) https://decrypt.co/378181/banks-senate-clarity-act-stablecoin-rules-key-vote
  3. Decrypt — Crypto Market Has 'Definitely Not Priced In' Clarity Act Surprise, Says Bernstein (2026-09-14) https://decrypt.co/378155/crypto-not-priced-in-clarity-act-surprise-bernstein
  4. Decrypt — Why Trump Backed Tougher Ethics Rules in Clarity Act, and Why the Crypto Industry Thinks It Can Pass (2026-09-14) https://decrypt.co/378125/clarity-act-crypto-ethics-trump-key-vote

This brief is for information and education. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.